Listen to this article as an audio podcast.
Here's the summary for the Lancaster PA real estate market for January 2009, and the latest sales and price curves. Without further ado, here's the charts.
Sales were off almost 30% from January to January. I don't think anyone in the business would be surprised by this number, though...we all knew it was coming. In fact, I had predicted a fall to the low 200's in sold homes, but even I was short! It fell to 173. Wow.
New listings were down, which is probably a good thing - people staying put. Listings pending sale took a hit of 27% versus 2008, and listings expiring climbed 20%, which is logical given the slow market. Active listings continued to climb.
Here's the chart for the sales numbers for 2007-2009...
My little surfer says it all; "it's a wild ride, dude!" Sales continue to fall off. If you look closely at 2008 you see a rebound in sales that starts in February and ran through June. Everyone will be looking for that to happen again this year starting now! Here's hoping...
What's happening with Lancaster PA home prices? Let's look:
Lots of fluctuation in both list prices and sold prices. It's only when we look at the seasonally-adjusted prices (SALP = Listing prices, SASP = Sold prices) that we see the trend is that the "gap" I write about every month continues to rear it's ugly head. Not since August 2007 has the gap been acceptable. List prices were coming down in the fall (even though sales prices were falling too, the price correction seemed to be taking hold) but have bounced back up as though everything is fine. Sigh... Lancaster needs to get the list prices down!
Well, there it is. Enjoy the techie details! What's the bottom line, Jeff, you ask?
- Sales are at their lowest ebb in over 2 years. If your home is under agreement right now, pat yourself on the back...then watch out! for those "home sale contingency" contracts...
- The Average list price around here has just GOT to come down to reflect reality.
- If you're a buyer with good financials, you should be looking at homes right now, in the winter months. Sellers are ready to deal.
Cheers!
___________________________________________________________________________
For Lancaster PA homes for sale click here. Jeff Geoghan is a top real estate expert in Lancaster County, PA, and an involved community member. Jeff's work has been featured in the Lancaster Newspapers, WGAL Channel 8, PA Business Journal and Wall Street Journal. Jeff's blog on Lancaster County and its homes is nationally-featured. Contact Jeff for more help with your Lancaster PA Real Estate needs. Jeff is also a photographer - view some of his lancaster pa photography portfolio. Comments are welcome!
Hi Jeff, That was a marvelous report and I think your forecast is on the money. Things will be this way for the at least the first 6 months and maybe even longer but one thing is certain, there are still sales and those working the market are likely getting them. I suspect strongly that you are doing fine and remain doing fine through out this quagmire of market we have to adapt to. And adapt we will. All the best Jeff.
Well done Jeff. Might as well get it out there. We can't hide the facts. If we know the facts, we can prepare.
Your brain must be made of charts and numbers! I'm glad you analyze them for us and give us the bottom line.
William - thanks for the comment - Let's see what happens in February!
Lenn - you got it. Fight the good fight.
Lauren - I do admit to a penchant for stats. I love finding trends!