You'll be hearing more of a new buzzword in the months to come - "Underwater".
This is the popular term for when a homeowner ends up owing more on their mortgage than the home is worth at market prices. There's a lot of speculation about how many such homeowners there are out there, but I'm going to give you some facts:
- 7,628,234 homes are now in a negative equity situation which represents 18.3% of all homes with a mortgage.
- Another 9,753,818 are within 5% of being under water.
That's the national numbers, and the picture is pretty bleak. Almost 42% of homeowners are either looking at a loss or teetering on the edge!
Of course, you're wondering about how that number changes at the local level. I can give you the State-by-state outlook right now:
| Properties Outstanding | |||||
| State | Mortgages | Negative Equity Mortgages | Near** Negative Equity Mortgages | Negative Equity Share | Near** Negative Equity Share |
| Alabama | 238,978 | 17,713 | 31,087 | 7.4% | 13.0% |
| Alaska | 72,046 | 9,852 | 13,505 | 13.7% | 18.7% |
| Arizona | 1,287,076 | 375,469 | 450,282 | 29.2% | 35.0% |
| Arkansas | 169,015 | 27,580 | 43,728 | 16.3% | 25.9% |
| California | 6,461,981 | 1,772,254 | 2,057,791 | 27.4% | 31.8% |
| Colorado | 1,045,773 | 191,893 | 259,178 | 18.3% | 24.8% |
| Connecticut | 678,766 | 50,001 | 73,412 | 7.4% | 10.8% |
| Delaware | 142,137 | 14,585 | 20,824 | 10.3% | 14.7% |
| Florida | 4,248,470 | 1,241,812 | 1,439,020 | 29.2% | 33.9% |
| Georgia | 1,456,327 | 338,495 | 471,280 | 23.2% | 32.4% |
| Hawaii | 201,188 | 11,337 | 15,545 | 5.6% | 7.7% |
| Idaho | 185,433 | 20,701 | 27,944 | 11.2% | 15.1% |
| Illinois | 2,081,065 | 220,511 | 312,504 | 10.6% | 15.0% |
| Indiana | 410,896 | 41,237 | 62,062 | 10.0% | 15.1% |
| Iowa | 206,429 | 31,582 | 52,208 | 15.3% | 25.3% |
| Kansas | 204,296 | 30,014 | 41,965 | 14.7% | 20.5% |
| Kentucky | 200,140 | 25,293 | 41,803 | 12.6% | 20.9% |
| Louisiana | 120,848 | 13,733 | 18,714 | 11.4% | 15.5% |
| Maine | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Maryland | 1,308,692 | 159,603 | 214,510 | 12.2% | 16.4% |
| Massachusetts | 1,390,757 | 144,168 | 196,033 | 10.4% | 14.1% |
| Michigan | 1,145,572 | 442,720 | 533,072 | 38.6% | 46.5% |
| Minnesota | 433,547 | 51,770 | 71,616 | 11.9% | 16.5% |
| Mississippi | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Missouri | 668,059 | 87,781 | 120,373 | 13.1% | 18.0% |
| Montana | 87,181 | 5,983 | 8,366 | 6.9% | 9.6% |
| Nebraska | 179,722 | 24,314 | 39,459 | 13.5% | 22.0% |
| Nevada | 609,577 | 291,190 | 321,576 | 47.8% | 52.8% |
| New Hampshire | 144,479 | 24,901 | 34,084 | 17.2% | 23.6% |
| New Jersey | 1,748,179 | 162,411 | 219,461 | 9.3% | 12.6% |
| New Mexico | 186,844 | 15,314 | 21,707 | 8.2% | 11.6% |
| New York | 1,554,607 | 68,113 | 103,970 | 4.4% | 6.7% |
| North Carolina | 1,190,448 | 112,584 | 193,104 | 9.5% | 16.2% |
| North Dakota | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Ohio | 1,905,000 | 419,002 | 553,449 | 22.0% | 29.1% |
| Oklahoma | 306,800 | 29,696 | 57,509 | 9.7% | 18.7% |
| Oregon | 641,820 | 48,309 | 69,748 | 7.5% | 10.9% |
| Pennsylvania | 1,413,181 | 79,978 | 122,070 | 5.7% | 8.6% |
| Rhode Island | 207,145 | 25,015 | 32,889 | 12.1% | 15.9% |
| South Carolina | 456,814 | 47,457 | 76,076 | 10.4% | 16.7% |
| South Dakota | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Tennessee | 718,072 | 107,506 | 161,226 | 15.0% | 22.5% |
| Texas | 2,721,638 | 449,243 | 621,420 | 16.5% | 22.8% |
| Utah | 414,762 | 44,414 | 60,000 | 10.7% | 14.5% |
| Vermont | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Virginia | 1,110,253 | 177,005 | 238,414 | 15.9% | 21.5% |
| Washington | 1,273,659 | 96,604 | 139,515 | 7.6% | 11.0% |
| Washington, DC | 99,548 | 10,325 | 14,053 | 10.4% | 14.1% |
| West Virginia | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Wisconsin | 383,907 | 54,908 | 77,896 | 14.3% | 20.3% |
| Wyoming | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| National | 41,788,563 | 7,628,234 | 9,753,818 | 18.3% | 23.3% |
Note that Pennsylvania numbers are significantly better than the national average! Less than 6% are actually "underwater", and another 9% are closing in on being in trouble.
So, how do you know if you are looking at a situation where selling now would be advantageous? Give me a call to arrange a review of local sales data that impacts your home value.
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For Lancaster PA homes for sale click here. Jeff Geoghan is a top real estate expert in Lancaster County, PA, and an involved community member. Jeff's work has been featured in the Lancaster Newspapers, WGAL Channel 8, PA Business Journal and Wall Street Journal. Jeff's blog on Lancaster County and its homes is nationally-featured. Contact Jeff for more help with your Lancaster PA Real Estate needs. Jeff is also a photographer - view some of his portfolio. Comments are welcome!
•This data only includes properties with a mortgage. Non-mortgaged properties are by definition not included.
•Defined as properties within 5% of being in a negative equity position. NA = Insufficient Data
Source: First American CoreLogic, as of October, 2008.
So many home owners are "under water", it's just astounding.
These home owners are a hostage to their mortgage company. They owe more than their home is worth. They cannot sell, even if they have to.
It's a disaster.
Maryland isn't looking too great, Lenn. I wish there was a silver lining but, for the short run, I can't find any.
Jeff, I'm wondering where they are getting their value numbers. The percentage for DC looks a whole lot higher than I think it really is.
Hi Patricia - Happy Thanksgiving!
These aren't values - they're the number of mortgages - I think this is challenging data for us to really look at and compare to what we're seeing out there with sellers...
This is so sad, Im glad to be in the 64% who aren't facing a loss.
We can at least look forward to a rebound in the spring, barring any more bad happenings.