Lancaster PA Real Estate Blog

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Things To Do In Lancaster PA - Thanksgiving Weekend 2008

Here are some things going on this weekend in Lancaster:

November 28th Mayor's Tree Lighting, Penn Square in Downtown Lancaster
6:30 p.m. - 8:30 p.m  Also includes carolers and the infamous "Tuba Christmas Kick off the holiday season and enjoy the festivities. www.lancastercityevents.com

November 26th New Holiday Planetarium Shows at the North Museum
at 1:00 and 2:30.  Kids love these shows!  400 College Ave.  www.northmuseum.org

November 28th and 29th St. Cecelia Concert Series   St. James Episcopal Church, 119 N. Duke St.
8 p.m. Holiday Brass Concert with the Rodney Mack Philadelphia Big Brass.
Tickets: Call 410-374-9059 or visit www.brownpapertickets.com

November 28th Midnight Madness   It's that time of year again, when shoppers jumpstart their holiday season. This year, it's all about the best deals and value. Don't miss out on all the great deals at Rockvale Outlets and Tanger Outlets. Stores open at 12 a.m. on Friday, Nov. 28, and don't close until 9 p.m. Rockvale is offering a FREE Christmas tree if you spend $250 from 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. on Black Friday or $350 the whole weekend. See their website for details.

November 28th  6:30 PM Live Music in the Café, Ten Thousand Villages. Free. Millie Nafziger and the Pessimistic Hopefuls, playing acoustic folk pop, many originals and some covers.  Address: 240 North Reading Road, Route 272 North, Ephrata, PA 17522
 http://ephrata.tenthousandvillages.com

 

Lancaster Home Values - What Does It Mean To Be "Underwater"?

You'll be hearing more of a new buzzword in the months to come - "Underwater".

Lancaster PA home values, Lancaster PA home pricesThis is the popular term for when a homeowner ends up owing more on their mortgage than the home is worth at market prices.  There's a lot of speculation about how many such homeowners there are out there, but I'm going to give you some facts:

  • 7,628,234 homes are now in a negative equity situation which represents 18.3% of all homes with a mortgage.
  • Another 9,753,818 are within 5% of being under water.

That's the national numbers, and the picture is pretty bleak. Almost 42% of homeowners are either looking at a loss or teetering on the edge! 

Of course, you're wondering about how that number changes at the local level.  I can give you the State-by-state outlook right now:

  Properties Outstanding
State Mortgages Negative Equity Mortgages Near** Negative Equity Mortgages Negative Equity Share Near** Negative Equity Share

Alabama 238,978 17,713 31,087 7.4% 13.0%
Alaska 72,046 9,852 13,505 13.7% 18.7%
Arizona 1,287,076 375,469 450,282 29.2% 35.0%
Arkansas 169,015 27,580 43,728 16.3% 25.9%
California 6,461,981 1,772,254 2,057,791 27.4% 31.8%
Colorado 1,045,773 191,893 259,178 18.3% 24.8%
Connecticut 678,766 50,001 73,412 7.4% 10.8%
Delaware 142,137 14,585 20,824 10.3% 14.7%
Florida 4,248,470 1,241,812 1,439,020 29.2% 33.9%
Georgia 1,456,327 338,495 471,280 23.2% 32.4%
Hawaii 201,188 11,337 15,545 5.6% 7.7%
Idaho 185,433 20,701 27,944 11.2% 15.1%
Illinois 2,081,065 220,511 312,504 10.6% 15.0%
Indiana 410,896 41,237 62,062 10.0% 15.1%
Iowa 206,429 31,582 52,208 15.3% 25.3%
Kansas 204,296 30,014 41,965 14.7% 20.5%
Kentucky 200,140 25,293 41,803 12.6% 20.9%
Louisiana 120,848 13,733 18,714 11.4% 15.5%
Maine NA NA NA NA NA
Maryland 1,308,692 159,603 214,510 12.2% 16.4%
Massachusetts 1,390,757 144,168 196,033 10.4% 14.1%
Michigan 1,145,572 442,720 533,072 38.6% 46.5%
Minnesota 433,547 51,770 71,616 11.9% 16.5%
Mississippi NA NA NA NA NA
Missouri 668,059 87,781 120,373 13.1% 18.0%
Montana 87,181 5,983 8,366 6.9% 9.6%
Nebraska 179,722 24,314 39,459 13.5% 22.0%
Nevada 609,577 291,190 321,576 47.8% 52.8%

New Hampshire 144,479 24,901 34,084 17.2% 23.6%
New Jersey 1,748,179 162,411 219,461 9.3% 12.6%
New Mexico 186,844 15,314 21,707 8.2% 11.6%
New York 1,554,607 68,113 103,970 4.4% 6.7%
North Carolina 1,190,448 112,584 193,104 9.5% 16.2%
North Dakota NA NA NA NA NA
Ohio 1,905,000 419,002 553,449 22.0% 29.1%
Oklahoma 306,800 29,696 57,509 9.7% 18.7%
Oregon 641,820 48,309 69,748 7.5% 10.9%
Pennsylvania 1,413,181 79,978 122,070 5.7% 8.6%
Rhode Island 207,145 25,015 32,889 12.1% 15.9%
South Carolina 456,814 47,457 76,076 10.4% 16.7%
South Dakota NA NA NA NA NA
Tennessee 718,072 107,506 161,226 15.0% 22.5%
Texas 2,721,638 449,243 621,420 16.5% 22.8%
Utah 414,762 44,414 60,000 10.7% 14.5%
Vermont NA NA NA NA NA
Virginia 1,110,253 177,005 238,414 15.9% 21.5%
Washington 1,273,659 96,604 139,515 7.6% 11.0%
Washington, DC 99,548 10,325 14,053 10.4% 14.1%
West Virginia NA NA NA NA NA
Wisconsin 383,907 54,908 77,896 14.3% 20.3%
Wyoming NA NA NA NA NA
National 41,788,563 7,628,234 9,753,818 18.3% 23.3%

Note that Pennsylvania numbers are significantly better than the national average!  Less than 6% are actually "underwater", and another 9% are closing in on being in trouble.

So, how do you know if you are looking at a situation where selling now would be advantageous?  Give me a call to arrange a review of local sales data that impacts your home value.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

 For Lancaster PA homes for sale click here. Jeff Geoghan is a top real estate expert in Lancaster County, PA, and an involved community member. Jeff's work has been featured in the Lancaster Newspapers, WGAL Channel 8, PA Business Journal and Wall Street Journal. Jeff's blog on Lancaster County and its homes is nationally-featured. Contact Jeff for more help with your Lancaster PA Real Estate needs. Jeff is also a photographer - view some of his portfolio. Comments are welcome!

  

•This data only includes properties with a mortgage. Non-mortgaged properties are by definition not included.

•Defined as properties within 5% of being in a negative equity position. NA = Insufficient Data 

Source: First American CoreLogic, as of October, 2008.  

Home Prices - Reality Check from Zillow

While I'm not the greatest fan of Zillow, they occasionally do interesting things that are worthy of reporting on.  I thought you would be interested in seeing the results of a poll they took last month regarding homeowner's perception of their home's value.  They broke the data into regions, which is what I find most interesting.  Here's the chart:

Lancaster PA Real Estate, Lancaster PA homes for sale, Cobblestone Court, Bent Creek, homes, Manheim Township, real estate

What I find noteworthy is that 23%, or almost a quarter, of homeowners in the Northeast still think that their home has increased over the past year.  In addition, another 19% think that nothing has changed.  That adds up to fully 43% of the market.  This does seem to bear out what I've been saying in these pages about the "price gap" that exists in Lancaster County - sellers listing their homes for tens of thousands more than homes are actually selling for.  If the Zillow data is accurate, then it's likely that homeowner perceptions are to blame.  Note that, out West, sellers have gotten the message.

Why does all this matter?  Because I firmly believe that when Lancaster Countians (both agents and sellers) really start knocking down the lists prices we'll see our market jump again.  Buyers aren't deaf, dumb & blind - they are patiently out there, waiting...

 For Lancaster PA homes for sale click here. Jeff Geoghan is a top real estate expert in Lancaster County, PA, and an involved community member. Jeff's work has been featured in the Lancaster Newspapers, WGAL Channel 8, PA Business Journal and Wall Street Journal. Jeff's blog on Lancaster County and its homes is nationally-featured. Contact Jeff for more help with your Lancaster PA Real Estate needs. Jeff is also a photographer - view some of his portfolio. Comments are welcome!

  

 

Hempfield School District PA Real Estate - Homes For Sale Review

Here is the Hempfield School District PA market review for last week, ending 11/15.  The current inventory activity of Hempfield School District homes for sale according to MLS:

  • Sold: 2 properties sold for an average price of $249,500, these homes were on the market an average of 235 days.
  • New: 18 houses were listed last week.
  • Pending: 10 houses were went under agreement last week.
  • Expired and Extended: 3 listings expired last week 2 listings extended their contracts with their listing agent.
  • Active: 300 homes are active with an average days on market of 107.

Manheim Township PA Real Estate - Homes For Sale Review

Here is the Manheim Township PA Real Estate market review for last week, ending 11/15.  The current inventory activity of Manheim Township homes for sale according to MLS:

  • Sold: 3 properties sold for an average price of $248,966, these homes were on the market an average of 101 days.
  • New: 13 houses were listed last week.
  • Pending:  2 houses were went under agreement last week.
  • Expired and Extended: 1 listing expired last week and 3 listings extended their contracts with their listing agent.
  • Active: 338 homes are active with an average days on market of 104.

Lititz PA Real Estate - Homes For Sale Review

Here is the Lititz, PA market review for last week, ending 11/15.  The current inventory activity of Lititz PA homes for sale according to MLS:

  • Sold: 8 properties sold for an average price of $330,485, these homes were on the market an average of 200 days.
  • New: 15 houses were listed last week.
  • Pending: 5 houses were went under agreement last week.
  • Expired and Extended: 1 listing expired last week and 4 listings extended their contracts with their listing agent.
  • Active: 224 homes are active with an average days on market of 129.

Lancaster City PA Real Estate - Homes For Sale Review

Here is the Lancaster City PA market review for last week, ending 11/15.  The current inventory activity of Lancaster City PA homes for sale according to MLS:

  • Sold: 6 properties sold for an average price of $67,175, these homes were on the market an average of 36 days.
  • New: 13 houses were listed last week.
  • Pending: 7 houses were went under agreement last week.
  • Expired and Extended: 8 listings expired last week and all 8 of them extended their contracts with their listing agent.
  • Active: 350 homes are active with an average days on market of 88.

 

Inspiring Story About Success Vs. Failure ("3 Feet From Gold")

I received this email from someone today - this is a great example of the power of perseverence in tough times!

_______________________________________________________________

One of the most common causes of failure is the habit of quitting when one is overtaken by temporary defeat. Every person is guilty of this mistake at one time or another. An uncle of R. U. Darby was caught by the "gold fever" in the gold-rush days, and went west to DIG AND GROW RICH. He had never heard that more gold has been mined from the brains of men than has ever been taken from the earth. He staked a claim and went to work with pick and shovel. The going was hard, but his lust for gold was definite.

After weeks of labor, he was rewarded by the discovery of the shining ore. He needed machinery to bring the ore to the surface. Quietly, he covered up the mine, retraced his footsteps to his home in Williamsburg, Maryland, told his relatives and a few neighbors of the "strike." They got together money for the needed machinery, had it shipped. The uncle and Darby went back to work the mine.

The first car of ore was mined, and shipped to a smelter. The returns proved they had one of the richest mines in Colorado! A few more cars of that ore would clear the debts. Then would come the big killing in profits.

Down went the drills! Up went the hopes of Darby and Uncle! Then something happened! The vein of gold ore disappeared! They had come to the end of the rainbow, and the pot of gold was no longer there! They drilled on, desperately trying to pick up the vein again-all to no avail.

Finally, they decided to QUIT. They sold the machinery to a junk man for a few hundred dollars, and took the train back home. Some "junk" men are dumb, but not this one! He called in a mining engineer to look at the mine and do a little calculating. The engineer advised that the project had failed, because the owners were not familiar with "fault lines." His calculations showed that the vein would be found JUST THREE FEET FROM WHERE THE DARBYS HAD STOPPED DRILLING! That is exactly where it was found!

The "Junk" man took millions of dollars in ore from the mine, because he knew enough to seek expert counsel before giving up. Most of the money which went into the machinery was procured through the efforts of R. U. Darby, who was then a very young man. The money came from his relatives and neighbors, because of their faith in him. He paid back every dollar of it, although he was years in doing so.

Long afterward, Mr. Darby recouped his loss many times over, when he made the discovery that DESIRE can be transmuted into gold. The discovery came after he went into the business of selling life insurance.

Remembering that he lost a huge fortune, because he STOPPED three feet from gold, Darby profited by the experience in his chosen work, by the simple method of saying to himself, "I stopped three feet from gold, but I will never stop because men say `no' when I ask them to buy insurance."

Darby is one of a small group of fewer than fifty men who sell more than a million dollars in life insurance annually. He owes his "stickability" to the lesson he learned from his "quitability" in the gold mining business.

Before success comes in any man's life, he is sure to meet with much temporary defeat, and, perhaps, some failure. When defeat overtakes a man, the easiest and most logical thing to do is to QUIT. That is exactly what the majority of men do.

More than five hundred of the most successful men this country has ever known, told the author their greatest success came just one step beyond the point at which defeat had overtaken them. Failure is a trickster with a keen sense of irony and cunning.

It takes great delight in tripping one when success is almost within reach.

Lancaster PA Foreclosures Update - Investment Properties For Sale

Here is a list of the latest foreclosure properties on the market in Lancaster PA.  Foreclosures were listed on the dates on the right of the page.  There are some good deals out there right now - call me to arrange a showing of these homes.  I'll be updating this list weekly so stay tuned...

1 Price Reduced $27,000
320 S THIRD STREET
COLUMBIA, PA 17512
Active / 142058  
Columbia Boro 1,096 3 1 0.03 10/29/2008
2 $160,000
1534 PRINCESS ANNE DRIVE
LANCASTER, PA 17601
Active / 141779  
Conestoga Valley 1,080 4 2 0.28 10/16/2008
3 $128,000
167 GREENLAND DRIVE
LANCASTER, PA 17602
Active / 142171  
Conestoga Valley 1,240 3 1.5 0.03 10/29/2008
4 $164,900
1327 MILL ROAD
ELIZABETHTOWN, PA 17022
Active / 142169  
Elizabethtown Area 1,074 4 2 0.36 10/28/2008
5 $109,900
3213 TURNPIKE ROAD
ELIZABETHTOWN, PA 17022
Active / 138501  
Elizabethtown Area 1,428 4 2 1.13 08/08/2008
6 $114,000
229 HEATHERWOOD DRIVE
EPHRATA, PA 17522
Active / 138755  
Ephrata Area 960 2 2 0.08 08/13/2008
7 New Listing $155,000
6045 PINE STREET
EAST PETERSBURG, PA 17520
Active / 142568  
Hempfield 1,568 4 2 0 11/12/2008
8 Price Reduced $56,000
732 MARIETTA AVENUE
LANCASTER, PA 17603
Active / 141697  
Lancaster 766 2 2 0.02 10/20/2008
9 $72,500
917 COLUMBIA AVENUE 135
LANCASTER, PA 17603
Active / 140874  
Lancaster 879 2 2 0 09/30/2008
10 $63,900
434 REYNOLDS AVENUE
LANCASTER, PA 17602
Active / 142158  
Lancaster 1,076 3 1 0.03 10/31/2008
11 $85,000
202 N MAIN STREET REAR
MANHEIM, PA 17545
Active / 142170  
Manheim Central 975 3 1 0.12 11/01/2008
12 $60,000
1064 DRAGER ROAD
COLUMBIA, PA 17512
Pending / 136907   S 
Manheim Central 1,532 3 1 0.5 06/28/2008
13 $87,900
30 E STIEGEL STREET
MANHEIM, PA 17545
Active / 142162  
Manheim Central 1,576 4 1 0.12 10/31/2008
14 $149,900
157 S GRANT STREET
MANHEIM, PA 17545
Active / 141314  
Manheim Central 1,650 4 2 0.24 10/06/2008
15 $173,400
9 W STIEGEL STREET
MANHEIM, PA 17545
Active / 142168  
Manheim Central 2,599 4 2 0.09 10/18/2008
16 $64,900
15 E LIBERTY STREET
LANCASTER, PA 17602
Active / 139101  
Manheim Township 1,258 3 1 0.05 08/18/2008
17 $119,900
1929 NEW HOLLAND PIKE
LANCASTER, PA 17601
Active / 139721  
Manheim Township 1,444 3 2 0.19 08/29/2008
18 $240,900
2379 HENBIRD LANE
LANCASTER, PA 17601
Active / 134317  
Manheim Township 2,869 3 4 0.77 05/07/2008
19 Status Change $154,900
165 BRADFORD STREET
MILLERSVILLE, PA 17551
Active / 140988  
Penn Manor 1,450 3 4 0.3 09/30/2008
20 $167,900
2605 ROBERT FULTON HIGHWAY
PEACH BOTTOM, PA 17563
Active / 141015  
Solanco 1,176 3 2 0.65 10/02/2008

Lancaster County PA Real Estate Market Sales - October Sales Report

Are you ready to see how Lancaster County is REALLY doing with home sales?  If so, here we go...

Lancaster PA real estate, Lancaster County housing statistics

In order to see the trends, let's also look at the Listings/Sales graphs for the last 2 years:

Lancaster PA real estate, Lancaster County housing statistics

First, let's look at closed sales.  October sales were down 19% from 2007, which you can also see on the graph inside the blue circled areas.  The key point is where the 2008 sales curve is going.  If the trend continues as it did in 2007, you can see where the pink line will go...the market should bottom out around 215 homes sold this coming January if the trend continues. 

By the way, it's important to note that the 2008/2007 trend in sales has been -24%, so being -19% isn't all that crazy given the tremendous negative media in October!

The new listings curve is closely following 2007, with October new listings only down 4% versus last year.

Homes going under agreement in Lancaster County fell 19% from 2007, to 326 units.  This is tracking with the downturn in sales since these pending sales are likely to close in November.

Of course, with all the pricing challenges we're facing in Lancaster County, it's expected to see the familiar jump in expired listings (+18%) as agents fail to sell their client's homes in greater numbers.  Lastly, the number of active listings was also up (+11%) over 2007 levels, not surprisingly.

Analysis: The Lancaster County PA Real Estate market is down over last year - like that's a surprise.  However, compared to the doom & gloom and dire media predictions, the local market is performing better than may be expected. Of course, it's going to be a long winter with 1,231 Realtors active in a market with 215 homes sold...