Lancaster PA Real Estate Blog

Lancaster County Association of Realtors announced the November 2007 home sales statistics this week, and many of the trends I identified in October (see my post here) continue.  Overall, home sales were down 15% versus 2006, with 398 estimated closings vs. 470 last year.  However, things are much worse once again if you break the numbers down:

Up to $120,000 -32%

$100,000 to $120,000  -46%

$180,000 to $200,000  -23%

These are the key Lancaster County sales price ranges.  As you can see, sales are way off in these "bread and butter" categories.  Meanwhile, some price ranges did a little better:

$200,000 to $250,000   +5% 

$250,000 to $400,000   +8%

One new thing this month is that even the new growth market of townhomes in the $140K-$160K range fell 16% in November.  The $160K-$180K range also saw a drop of 25%, sealing the fate of the affordable single home in Lancaster County.  The single largest category in terms of total home sales was the $200K-250K price range, demonstrating that this is now the median price you can expect to pay for a single home these days.

The average price was up again from $189,052 last year to $194,890 this past month.  After looking at the data, though, you can see why.  That's not good news for the average homebuyer.

Is there any good news?  Well, spring is only 15 weeks away!  Let's hope the winter isn't too cold for everyone in the housing market.  I for one would like to see builders explore more affordable options - the city is waiting!  

Saturday our family had the privilege of attending an amish-sponsored fundraiser auction & breakfast at the Solanco Fairgrounds.  The event was to raise money to help support the legal fees for popular local midwife Diane Goslin, who is in the court system fighting back against the state board of medicine.  The auction was very well attended by both Amish & English families and when we left at 1:30 people were still arriving with items to sell.  We enjoyed an excellent breakfast and connected with other homebirth families from all over the region!

For those of you who are new to LancasterCountyBlog, my wife and I became homebirth parents after the medical and insurance system failed us (read the story here) back last summer.  To put it mildly, Diane was a Godsend when our paths crossed in the midst of labor.  Now, we try to help other families looking for a natural option to the hospital and drug-induced birth scenario. 

An organization was formed this summer to support homebirth in Pennsylvania – www.SaveHomeBirth.com.  Since the state board is trying desperately to make an example of Diane, the hundreds (thousands) of satisfied patients of hers have decided to push back with their dollars and time.  For all the private midwives and doulas out there…this day was for you!

When it comes to "great deals in distressed properties, the first rule is that nothing's as simple as it sounds...

Regarding a recent customer letter about Sheriff Sales, I thought I'd post my reply for the edification of the deal-hunters in training out there.  These are my opinions & observations - give me a call for more detail if you're interested!

1. Homes at the Sheriff Sale that have value will be sought after by professionals, of which there are about 4-5 at every sale.  A good value consists of low outstanding loan balances, good location and acceptable condition.  Those houses get bid up pretty high, and it's abssolutely critical to know your margin to a fine degree.  The pros bring laptops with each auction detailed with estimated resale, top bid and other notes to help keep everything straight during the sale.  You should try to attend the next one to see how things flow.  One other thing - you'll need to research and have at least 5 properties you want to invest in - because at least 2 of those will get pulled just before the sale date (due to a stay issued by the judge) and the pros will get at least 2 others from you...

2. Under a Sheriff or Tax Lein (public) sale all responsibility rests upon the purchaser to handle everything.  If there's a hidden lein or if someone needs evicted, or if there are huge water bills owed, the purchaser gets to deal with it.  There's no help from anyone in a public sale situation.

Bottom line - Public sales are very risky for first-time investors, and should only be undertaken with tremendous prior preparation and thorough funding.  Only a very few of my customers ever go this direction in the end.  Depending on your business goals, I'd recommend that you try to purchase either:
1) an open-market foreclosure (there are lots more out there these days - I can email you daily updates if you wish).  These sales have had the title cleaned by the lender before being re-offered to the public.  I sell a lot of these to investors, and the key is to be able to jump on a good one the same day.  If the seller decides that there might be some more money to be milked out of a buyer, they'll immediately announce what's called a "highest and best" deadline for all interested parties.  Again, you need to really know your numbers, be it resale or rental income vs. expenses.
2) HUD resales - every Friday watch www.hooksvanholm.com, which is the PA outlet for gov't foreclosure sales.  Not as much inventory, but the titles are clean and they make it easy.  The competition can be fierce because everyone knows about this but once in a long while you can catch an opening and get a deal.  The bidding is all done sealed online through an authorized broker (which I am one).  Investors have to wait a week to bid but it gives you a few days to do your numbers before placing your bid - a rare convenience in this game.

Hope this helps - let me know what you'd like to go after!  I can meet you for coffee some time if you'd like to go over your business plan in more detail. 

Thanks,
Jeff

It's good to be back blogging after a week away! 

Today I was out in Marietta and decided to take a lunch break hike out to Chickies Rock Overlook.  OK, there's a REALLY cold wind blowing from the Northwest, but I've always wanted to get out there and check it out...

Parking for the park is right on Route 441 about a mile north of the exit Route 30.  The photo at right is what you see at the back of the lot - there are a few picnic tables and that's it.

The park has some trails that cover some steep terrain, but the trailways are wide-open and generally well-graded.  I saw evidence of mountain bike visitors so I'm assuming that's allowed.

The trail winds up to a fire road, which you follow to the left.  About 50 yards down there is a trailhead leading up the right (see the photo).  I took the fire road out to the point and the trail back - both are OK and a light walk.

The fire road is easy as can be to walk out on, but the trailway affords more scenic forest scenes.  Since it's December, you can see quite a distance through the bare trees.

The fire road skirts around a large knoll and the trail marches right up over it.  Beyond it, the bluffs overlooking the Susquehanna River descend to the famed Chickies Rock vista.  It was certainly a nice vantage point, and more than a little dangerous if you don't stay behind the barriers - straight down!  The rail tracks wind along the riverbank below and the opposite shoreline of York county beckons.  Marietta is a small cozy town off to your right( visible in the below photo).

It was very windy up at Chickies Rock!  In the photo above the wind was coming straight at me from the valley beyond - almost scary...but there was absolutely nobody up there so I enjoyed the stillness and the motion of the Susquehanna River.  I was back at the car in 20 minutes.  Total hike distance was about 1.5 miles - not too bad!

If you get a chance to visit Columbia or Marietta PA, and are into short hikes, don't miss Chickies Rock.   

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For Lancaster PA homes for sale click here. Jeff Geoghan is a top real estate expert in Lancaster County, PA, and an involved community member. Jeff's work has been featured in the Lancaster Newspapers, WGAL Channel 8, PA Business Journal and Wall Street Journal. Jeff's blog on Lancaster County and its homes is nationally-featured. Contact Jeff for more help with your Lancaster PA Real Estate needs. Jeff is also a photographer - view some of his portfolio. Comments are welcome!

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