Lancaster PA Real Estate Blog

According to David Stevens, head of FHA, the U. S. housing market is on life support. In an article in Bloomberg Businessweek, Stevens is quoted as saying: “This is a market purely on life support, sustained by the federal government.” He went on to say that the FHA’s monopoly of residential lending is “a sign of a very sick system.”

 

We should all be concerned by the level of lending from FHA and the potential for disaster should large numbers of the loans default. Earlier this year an article in the Washington Post reported that FHA delinquencies had increased by more than a third in the past year, with more than 9 percent of borrowers at least 90 days behind in their mortgage payments. And while newer data indicates that number to be decreasing, the concerning factor is the tremendous exposure of FHA due to the sheer volume of loans guaranteed. Recent data indicates that FHA’s involvement in home purchase transactions appears to have surpassed that of both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

 

Stevens has repeatedly tried to downplay the current risk by pointing out that the majority of the “problem” loans were originated in 2007 and 2008 when more lax lending standards were in place. New requirements, he points out, should significantly lower the default rate. But what FHA seems to be ignoring is the risk from continued sluggishness in the economy combined with high unemployment. Lacking a robust recovery, many of the borrowers who may have once been good credit risks may have difficulty remaining current on their mortgages.

 

The ultimate problem, however, isn’t just one of the FHA; the dramatic increase in loan guarantees puts taxpayers on the hook for 100 percent of any losses the agency incurs.

The Housing Guru: The expert source for all your housing questions

 

IF YOU WATCHED 60 MINUTES LAST NIGHT ON CBS, YOU TOO CAN SEE THE WRITING ON THE WALL! Homeowners are considering walking away from "underwater" homes---and they are doing it in great numbers. These are not your "subprime" mortgage foreclosure---they are average homeowners who have been making payments and CAN AFFORD to keep paying! They choose to move on because they do not see a future in their homes!!!

FALLING HOME VALUES. This is still A REAL ISSUE TO CONSIDER......prices are still falling , and may fall further! Let's not put our heads in the sand---we need to act now! With attention on the seriously underwater middle class homeowners, walking away from their obligations, we now have another possible situation that will cut into the already lower home prices.

Falling home values have not stopped--they may have slowed somewhat in certain markets, but prices are still coming down! With foreclosures still a factor and short sales increasing each month, we need to take a long hard look at what we need to do in order to prevent further erosion in the housing market....What we DO have in our favor are BUYERS!...People are looking to buy in this market because of percieved value, Perhaps for the first time in a decade!

There is no way to say how far home values will fall; we can look at prices as closings happen or we can look back on a 3 month time period to try to catch the trend for the next 3 months. None of this information is usable, however, because the actual price where a property trades appears to be based on the homeowners situation, not on any market trend.  No longer can we use 1 year or even 6 months as a criteria for pricing homes

So, given the fact that we are not able to price properties based on a trend, it is now essential to know the motivation of the seller in more detail than in the past---How do we measure home values NOW? How do we determine the real price of a property in a market where the homeowner, desperate perhaps, needs to sell fast?

Measuring home values in this market is like measuring a moving target....we can be very wrong very easily and the homeowner who is more vulnerable then ever before, can easily become the victim of a distorted sense of home values if we use our former ways of pricing.

LET'S NOT PUT OUR HEADS IN THE SAND ABOUT VALUES AND LOSE  PRECIOUS TIME IN THE PROCESS!

One thing that I have noticed here in the Hamptons is that the "new builds" are selling quite quickly and they are selling at prices that were "set" before the downturn--in other words, at the highs of the market in '07-'08! Builders are more optimistic than I have seen them in a very long time; they are able to buy up properties in ideal locations for 1/2 the price they would have paid in '07-'08 and they are tearing down and building new homes that appeal to a "new" buyer. This new buyer has money and has been waiting to buy a new home in a great location....and the builders are making hay while the sun shines!

MEASURING VALUES IN A VERY DIFFERENT HOUSING MARKET: The challenges that we face going forward in measuring the true value of a home is going to cripple the housing market unless we fully understand the motivation of both the buyer and the seller. I have the sense that if we go about doing the same things we did in the past with prices, we will find ourselves in a very bad, longer term crisis than is now projected.

PROPER PRICING MAY BE THE ONE THING THAT IS PROPPING UP THE HOUSING MARKET!!

IN my opinion, there are 4 definitive categories that we need to focus on when pricing properly in this very precarious time. I have broken them down with pricing strategies by category so you can see the importance of giving each property the best chance to sell quickly:

1."Original" condition homes: those homes that may be coming on the market for the first time in it's history. These homes are usually 25 years old or older and need major work to bring them up to date.

• Because the pluming and electric is old, the appliances and fixtures are out of date, this property needs to be priced to allow for replacement of these things---save time and money by pricing this house to motivate buyers to want to buy it...maybe even list the approximate costs of replacement.
• These homes need to be priced at the lowest level possible, based upon mostc recent sales and in-contracts of similar homes in a given area. Emotion is a major factor in additon to price when a buyer is looking at this category.

2."Good" condition homes: those homes that have been well maintained and may have been recently renovated but are 10 years or older.

• Here, the home has much to offer in terms of less work to do but again, offering the approximate costs of anything that needs to be re-placed will help to motivate the buyer who wants the charm of an "older home".
• Proper Pricing is critical in this situation because a buyer knows that he/she will have to do work to make it like their own and is looking to have a good reason to buy it. The price will make the difference here; emotion willl be less of a factor.

3."Prime" condition homes: these are the houses that we may have considered "like new" or "mint" condition and are no more than 10 years old, have been very well maintained and are up brought up to date on appliances and baths.

• This category of home is surprisingly easy to sell to the buyer who wants to move in and not have to do any work what-so-ever. Emotion will be a major factor and a good price will be the cherry on the top of a great "buy"

4."New build": is new and has never been lived in....generally no more than a year old.

• This is a category that took a big "hit" during the downturn; prices could not go low enough for the buyers of those houses! Motivation to sell became a sheer need to sell; builders were making deals that were hard to say "no" to.
• Because the "new builds" of yesterday ('07-'09) were going up in less than prime locations, they sat! What is that old saying: "LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION"....well it is still the key to selling a brand new home! Top dollar can be the result when a new home is in a desirable location.

With the additional factor of "walk aways" on top of the lost value through forelosure, we have an obligation to be at the top of our game when it comes to pricing homes in this market. 

LET'S NOT MAKE THE SAME OLD MISTAKES WITH PRICES THAT WE HAVE IN THE PAST!!! LET'S NOT PUT OUR HEADS IN THE SAND WHEN IT COMES TO THIS ISSUE--OUR LIVELY-HOODS DEPEND ON IT!

Paula I. Hathaway, LBA, Prudential Douglas Elliman

Top Producer, Diamond , Gold and Chairman's Circle Awards

Every year I order the results of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Survey of Home Buyers and Sellers. I am particularly interested in How the Buyer Found His or Her Home in the last year because that determines where my marketing efforts will go to sell the homes that I list. Because the numbers pertaining to open houses are so dismal, it is no longer a category in the survey results. I do understand that open houses were more successful before personal computers and the internet but now, approximately 90 percent of buyers begin their home search on the internet. Thirty six percent will find their home on the internet, another thirty six percent will find their home through the help of a realtor, twelve percent from a yard sign and six percent from a friend, neighbor or a relative. That covers ninety percent. Another five percent, will purchase new construction from a home builder or the builder's agent.

So why do some realtors continue to do open houses? I find that generally two types of realtors continue to do open houses despite the numbers. The first category is the realtor who has not adapted to the internet. He or she refuses to accept that it is here to stay and plans to retire in the next few years, so why bother? The other category is the new and inexperienced realtor. Both categories of  realtors have just a few listings and hope to acquire some buyers from the open houses. The reality is that qualified buyers who are looking for a home such as the one listed by the realtor will find it from the top sources listed above and either call the listing agent or have his or her own realtor schedule a showing.

Open houses are also a HUGE security risk for the sellers and the realtor. We all have been notified by our Boards of murders, robberies, rapes, etc. that have occurred at open houses. Let's face it. A realtor has no control over who is coming through the door at an open house. By doing so, you are leaving the door wide open to those who have motives other than buying a house. Besides those who intend to do harm to a realtor, you invite nosy neighbors, people looking for free food or a bathroom, and burglars to see what the seller has inside the home for him to take when no one is home.

At every list appointment that I have, I advise the seller prospects about the facts of open houses. Almost all of them, after being given the facts,, respond with "That's great. We were worried that you would want to do open houses and we are not comfortable with idea." Since I have been doing this in listing appointments, I have never had a seller insist that I do open houses. If I do, I will pass on the listing. A seller who refuses to accept the facts, will probably be difficult when it comes to the many other things that come with selling a home such as pricing, taking care of the home, etc.

I sell approximately 85% of the homes that I list. I am not a "mega" lister. I am interested in the quality of the seller and his or her home they want to sell and its price. When other realtors are doing open houses, I am doing things that are much safer and productive like showing homes to buyers who contact me through the internet or yard signs or just having some me time.

Lee Morof
RE/MAX Showcase Homes
Birmingham, Michigan
www.NorthWoodwardHomes.com
info@NorthWoodwardHomes.com
Call:  248-514-2640

It seems these days lines are being drawn between those that "believe" in global warming and those that don't. Well guess what, I am not an environmentalist ("tree-hugger" as some might call me) because of global warming, although it is worth mentioning that I do believe the planet is warming, and I do believe that people do have some effect on that process.

Here are the OTHER reasons that I think green practices are important:

• Because I think that dependence on foreign oil puts the country in a bad political position.
• Because I think that people waste to0 much and that our culture has become over-commercialized.
• Because I prefer quality over quantity, especially in houses. (and I don't want to clean a big house)
  
• Because I want to breath clean air and drink clean water.
• Because I believe that toxic products should not be applied to our food and that they probably cause a variety of health problems.
  
• Because I believe that eventually we will run out of natural resources if we don't start using more sustainable practices.
• Because I want to see more well-paying green energy jobs not overseas junk creation jobs.
• Because I believe it is my duty to leave behind the earth in a better condition than I found it.

and yes, this one does have to do with global warming...

• Because I love to ski and with the winters we have been having in Western PA I don't know how much longer I will be able to do that here at home.

So you see, being green doesn't just mean choosing a side on the global warming debate. There are a lot more immediate, local reasons to be concerned for our environment.

Live green in Western PA. Call Christa Ross from RE/MAX Select Realty, your certified green agent and RE/MAX green specialist at 724-933-6300 x214 or visit my website at www.greenhomespgh.com.